A mere eight weeks ago when Morgan Rogers stood on the Stadium of Light pitch, seeming perplexed while the Villa manager admonished him over missing a penetrating pass. At that point, as the club failed to win in six, doubts remained if his performances were a sign or a cause of Villa's broader struggles.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
On Sunday, in contrast, the touchline reaction was far more favourable. When Rogers curled home his second to restore the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician tore off his jacket, threw his arms wide and roared. The Birmingham club were on their way to ten wins in a row and despite not winning any of their first six fixtures, now sit just three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Legitimate Title Contenders?
This is a particularly tough query to address. Past precedent, a general sense of Villa, indicates otherwise. Furthermore, their performances haven't been wholly dominant this season, while the positive results have stacked up.
Per Opta, twice all season has the side registered an xG more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a team who have strung together 10 in a row, the Villans seem strangely fragile – but at the moment the fine lines are going in their favour.
The Reliant Strategy
Their recent policy seems to be to exchange chances with the opposition and then rely on their star man to bail them out with a couple of clinical strikes. It happened away to Leeds, it occurred in London, and again against Manchester United.
The initial strike stemmed from a superb shot, curled right inside the goal frame from the corner of the box. For his second was essentially a somewhat messier replica of the opener as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Can It Last?
Reason suggests otherwise. In the recent win, the opposition managed more shots and more efforts on goal. The team has won each of their last eight by a single goal. They have allowed goals in all but one of those games.
Regression to the mean might be the biggest rival the club will encounter over the coming weeks. Their key man, almost certainly, will not continue to blasting his shots past despairing goalkeepers forever.
A Case for Belief
Maybe there exists another reality where, rather than luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players may yet rediscover their best form.
- Ollie Watkins could start finding the net regularly.
- Jadon Sancho could transform into the player he resembled in Germany.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are set to come back from the treatment room, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable backline.
Perhaps there is in that the potential of a genuine bid, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on one man.
Enjoying the Ride
However, nobody expected this. Nobody thought Aston Villa would sit in the top three for the holidays. And without a doubt two months ago, no one envisioned Rogers by the end of the year would be spearheading a title charge and appearing as an essential England player.
The current run is to be savoured for the very reason that it seems so surreal. When Rogers faced the Villa faithful at the final whistle conducting the cheers, he appeared to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. Such periods do not happen often and should be relished.
